Resumen

MOREIRA RIOS, Isabel et al. Prevalence and prognosis of leprosy in Pinar del Rio. Rev Ciencias Médicas [online]. 2014, vol.18, n.1, pp. 57-65. ISSN 1561-3194.

Introduction: leprosy is a chronic, mildly contagious granulomatous disease caused by the bacillus Mycobacterium leprae, affecting chiefly the skin, the peripheral nerves, the mucosa of the upper respiratory tracts, the eyes and other structures. Objective: to estimate the real prevalence by the calculation of the hidden prevalence and the prognosis of leprosy in Pinar del Río for the year 2013. Material and method: an observational descriptive study of prospective character was carried out; for obtaining the information, compulsory declaration cards and the epidemiological surveys of the leprosy cases were reviewed. Several indicators were calculated: leprosy prevalence rate, hidden prevalence, and the prognosis of the disease by the method of exponential smoothing. Results: in the last years, the prevalence of leprosy in P. Rio has a tendency towards decrease, existing a difference between the known prevalence and the real prevalence, on the increase of the latter to the sum of the hidden prevalence of 5 cases, with a forecast in the disease for 2013 similar to the previous year. Conclusion: the study revealed that although leprosy does not constitute a health problem in the Province, there are gaps in the surveillance system, identified after calculation of the estimate of hidden prevalence representing the number of leprosy cases, not diagnosed in the Province in the last five years, which will have an influence in the operational and epidemiological indicators of the leprosy program.

Palabras clave : Epidemiology; Leprosy [epidemiology].

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