Introduction:

The risk scale designed to estimate the probability of cardiac complications with a clinical and echocardiographic approach must be validated before its implementation in clinical practice.

Objective:

To validate a predictive scale of cardiac complications in acute myocardial infarction with a clinical-echocardiographic approach.

Materials and methods:

An analytical, observational, case-control study was carried out on 1,303 patients admitted to the Cardiology and Cardiovascular Surgery center of Santiago de Cuba in the period 2019-2021, for which two samples were selected: one for model construction (n=800) and one for scale validation (n=198), from January to June 2022. Possible predictors were determined through univariate analysis and calculation of the odds ratio, with a significance level of p≤0.05; likewise, a multivariate binary logistic regression model was developed and the risk scale was obtained, which was validated by different methods.

Results:

The scale was obtained with 10 predictors and 2 risk strata. It achieved good discrimination (80%), and a good level of fit and construct validity (p=0.70). Likewise, it ensured a correct prediction of more than 50% of cardiac complications, acceptable sensitivity and specificity values (92.03% and 91.63%, respectively), as well as adequate content validity, internal validity and reliability.

Conclusions:

The risk scale to stratify the risk of cardiac complications includes predictors of severity of coronary ischemic disease, with good validation parameters to be used in decision-making to prevent.

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