Introduction.

This study shows time behaviors of the active and accumulative cases during the second and third COVID-19 epidemic reappearances for Santiago de Cuba province (November 1, 2020 to September 29, 2021). The parameter values of this model are reported at different time instant of this period and shown those reported in the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in this province.

Methods

. Unlike of this first epidemic wave, the estimation of model parameters confirms that these two epidemic waves characterize by a high virus transmission and individual mobility, and low risk perception, social responsibility and effectiveness of implemented governmental actions.

Results

It is concluded that this model and Bayesian algorithms describe official data reported by the Ministry of Public Health of the Republic of Cuba for the Santiago de Cuba province and it constitutes a useful tool to take decisions by the Provincial Defense Council and Provincial Office of Public Health. The risk perception and social responsibility of individuals influence markedly in the attenuation/increase of COVID-19 transmission.

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