Resumen

RODRIGUEZ-PUPO, Alejandro et al. Is Probabilistic modeling essential in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cuba?. Rev. Cubana Met. [online]. 2020, vol.26, n.3  Epub 01-Sep-2020. ISSN 2664-0880.

This article shows a modeling exercise of hypothetical oil spills in the northwestern portion of the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cuba to indicate to the reader the importance and the need for probabilistic modeling amid the complex dynamics of the meteorological and oceanic systems present in that region, which governs the movement of oil slicks. The PETROMAR-3D oil drift forecast lagrangian model is used for this exercise. The trajectory of the spill and its fate to the coast are analyzed through winter and cyclonic seasons scenarios respectively, in addition a spill of an extreme event scenario (Hurricane Irma) is simulated. A new approach is introduced, based on the direction of slick movement in the first 24 hours, for the analysis of the relationship between the trajectories and the fate of hydrocarbon slicks to the coasts.

Palabras clave : oil spill modeling; petromar; lagrangian model; Exclusive economic zone of Cuba.

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