Resumen

RODRIGUEZ PERON, José Miguel; ALDANA VILAS, Laura  y  VILLALOBOS HEVIA, Nelson. Delphi method to identify the science priorities and the technological innovation. Rev Cub Med Mil [online]. 2010, vol.39, n.3-4, pp. 214-226. ISSN 1561-3046.

INTRODUCTION: The strategic planning of technological innovation in the health field requires of assumptions based on the past and in present registered techniques allowing formulating hypotheses on future scenarios with an acceptable level of rationality. OBJECTIVE: To assess the use of the Delphi method to determine the priorities of science and technological innovation in the:"Dr. Juis Díaz Soto" Central Military Hospital. METHODS: A procedure from experts was used according to the Delphy methodology. The evaluative expert panel included nine specialists with high knowledge and of competence coefficients. RESULTS: The maximal values of scoring assigned by the experts were into the first degree of priority with 8 and 10. The descending trend in the Kendal's coefficient depending on the priority level assigned demonstrated that the highest values are located in the group of great interest of experts since they express the divergence rate of effective agreement and the concordance level in the effectiveness of the primary datum collection. The scoring pyramids showed a similar behaviour to that of the normal distribution curves of means, indicating the homogeneity and the coherence as regards the selection criteria of study variables selection. CONCLUSIONS: The application of Delphy method as a tool to indentify the technological trends in future scenarios allows to establish with a quasi-certainty the consensus among the experts the science priorities and technological innovations in the hospital, allowing the organization may to develop strategic plans.

Palabras clave : Science system and technological innovation; prospective; Delphi.