Introduction:

the prevention and immediate treatment of infectious diseases and in particular community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), are essential to improve the prognosis in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Objective:

to evaluate the ability of a model based on prognostic factors to predict the risk of dying from community-acquired pneumonia in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Methods:

an analytical cohort study was conducted in patients diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and community-acquired pneumonia admitted to the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes hospital, in the period from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2020.

Results:

with the logistic regression model it was found that shock was the most important factor, raising the aforementioned risk to more than 18 times (OR= 18.84; CI= 3.26 to 24.61; p= 0.000), followed by multilobar pneumonia (OR= 14.55; CI= 8.80 to 21.43; p = 0.019) and reversible organ dysfunction (OR = 8.01; CI= 1.25 to 51.17; p = 0.009). The calibration and discrimination of the model was demonstrated by the values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.419) and the area under the curve receiver operating characteristics (0.952; p = 0.000) respectively.

Conclusions:

with the values obtained by the logistic regression model, it will be possible to estimate the risk of dying, showing adequate calibration and discriminative capacity.

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