Introduction:

Dengue virus is considered one of the most devastating diseases worldwide with 40% of the population living in transmission areas and one of the most climate-related diseases.

Objective:

To determine the incidence rate of climate variability on Aedes aegypti mosquito infestation and dengue virus appearing in Guantanamo province, period time 2017-2019.

Method:

A retrospective, longitudinal, descriptive research was carried out, in which 9 municipalities and 10,221 suspected cases of dengue fever were selected (as universe). The variables studied were as follows: infestation in reservoirs by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes according to climatic season, arboviroses risk rate according to stratum, dengue cases, temperature and precipitation. Data were obtained from monthly meteorological records and from the Statistics Department of Centro Provincial de Higiene, Epidemiología y Microbiología. It was used the absolute and relative frequencies, mean frequency, the standard deviation and the Pearson correlation coefficient.

Results:

Mean annual temperature varied by 1 °C, mean values of relative humidity and precipitation decreased and impacted all stratums. Infestation ascended with the highest dengue risk rate in the tropical savanna climate stratum, rate ratio 0.63 (95 % CI: 0.59-0.67) P=0.000. Temperature and precipitation had the strongest linear association with Aedes aegypti mosquito infestation and dengue risk rate with the linear correlation coefficient of R2=0.9 and R2=0.8.

Conclusions:

Climatic variability has a favorable effect on Aedes aegypti infestation and dengue transmission during the wet season, with a significant correlation in all stratums.

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