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Revista Médica Electrónica
versión On-line ISSN 1684-1824
Resumen
GARCIA ALVAREZ, Pedro Julio; MOREJON RAMOS, Leodan y GRASSO LEYVA, Fernando. Temporal model of the behavior of critically ill patients with COVID-19 during their staying in intensive care. Lombardy, Italy. Rev.Med.Electrón. [online]. 2021, vol.43, n.3, pp. 601-615. Epub 30-Jun-2021. ISSN 1684-1824.
Introduction:
a time series is the product of the observation of a variable in time. It is a mathematical tool frequently applied in health. No temporal models have been developed to predict patients’ behavior during their staying in the Intensive Care Unit.
Objectives:
to create a time series allowing to predict the behavior of seriously-ill patients due to COVID-19, during their staying in the Intensive Care Unit in the region of Lombardy, Italy.
Materials and methods:
analytic, longitudinal prospective study with a group of critical patients who were admitted from April 1st to May 1st, with COVID-19 diagnosis, to Ospedale Maggiore di Crema, in the Lombardy region, Italy. The universe was formed by 28 patients and all of them were worked on.
Results:
48% of patients were male. Average age: 83 years; Time series: Model 1 holding PO2/FiO2 p = 0.251; Model 2 (ARIMA) SatO2/FiO2 p = 0.674 (in the two first models the result increased with the days, following a predictable behavior=; Model 3 (ARIMA) p = 0.406 (in this case the expected result decreased as time passed). The obtained functions allow to calculate the expected value according to the day from the admission.
Conclusions:
predicting patient's evolution in the Intensive Care Unit allowed early detecting those with unexpected curves and targeting more aggressive therapies toward them.
Palabras clave : PO2/FiO2 index: COVID-19; predictive model.