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Revista Cubana de Medicina Militar
versión On-line ISSN 1561-3046
Resumen
GONZALEZ HERNANDEZ, Maurio; RUIZ NAPOLES, Juan Bruno y VELASQUEZ ALMAGUER, Sandra. Type 2 diabetes mellitus risk score in patients older than 45 years. Rev. cuban. med. mil. [online]. 2023, vol.52, n.4 Epub 01-Dic-2023. ISSN 1561-3046.
Introduction:
Diabetes mellitus has caused an increase in interest in the development of studies and research, currently enhanced by being considered a pandemic.
Objective:
To develop a risk score for type 2 diabetes mellitus in patients older than 45 years.
Method:
An analytical cohort study was carried out, with an analysis sample made up of 1021 patients and a validation sample with 891. The predictor variables were obtained through univariate analysis, by binary logistic regression and calculation of the odds ratio, with a significance level of p≤ 0.05. In the risk scale, the discriminant power was assessed through the area under the curve; to calibrate it, the omnibus tests, the R2 statistics of Cox, Snell, and Nagelkerke, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for p≥ 0.05 were calculated.
Results:
A model was obtained that explains 77.6% of the independent variable, with a sensitivity of 94.9% and a specificity of 85.3%, the area under the curve had a range of 0.725 to 0.833. A risk score was developed which was statistically significant with X2= 17; p= 0.017 and a sensitivity of 96.8%.
Conclusions:
The score developed predicts the risk of suffering type 2 diabetes mellitus in the patients studied.
Palabras clave : type 2 diabetes mellitus; risk score; diagnosis.