Resumen

BAYARRE VEA, Héctor D. et al. Primary level care physical disability in third age persons at. Prediction forms. Rev Cubana Med Gen Integr [online]. 2009, vol.25, n.1, pp. 0-0. ISSN 1561-3038.

INTRODUCTION: treatment of physical disabilities is a challenge for contemporary Gerontology, hence the significance of its approach. AIM: to establish mathematical forms for prediction of physical disabilities in community third age persons resident in Cuban selected provinces. METHODS: a development research in each province was performed, allowing obtaining and validation of above mentioned forms to predict physical disabilities. Previously, we made prevalence studies. Cases selected included all elderly with physical disability, and as controls, a sample of third age persons without this condition, for a ratio of 4:1. Information was obtained by: Minimal Examination of Mental State, Lawton Index, and Risk Factors Survey of Physical Disability. Data processing was performed by Multiple Logistic Regression, step by step method, and Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, by means of automated programs. RESULTS: forms developed have an acceptable validity and the area under ROC curve is of 0,75 (0,68-0,80) for Havana City; of 0,96 (0,92-0,99) for Camaguey province, of 0.76 (0,72-0,81) for Las Tunas province, of 0,69 (0,63-0,76) for Gramma province, and of 0,91 (0,85-0,97) for Holguin province. CONCLUSIONS: forms obtained allow, from individual risk profile, to predict physical disability in elderly groups from study provinces, thus they may to become significant tools to predict and to control health deviation refer by staff of primary care level.

Palabras clave : Third age persons; physical disability; mathematical forms.

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