Resumen

DE LA OLIVA DE CON, Fidel  y  MOLINA FERNANDEZ, Reinaldo. Proposed Procedure for Short-term Exchange Rate Prediction Using Contrasted Techniques. Cofin [online]. 2020, vol.14, n.2  Epub 01-Nov-2020. ISSN 2073-6061.

In international financial relations, exchange rate prediction is an essential element for the successful completion of commercial or investment transactions. The objective of this research is to propose a procedure as unbiased as possible to predict the future course of exchange rates. In order to achieve these results, a set of predictive techniques have been compared, such as: technical analysis, Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins methodology, ARCH-GARCH models and criteria for decision making under uncertain conditions. The main result of this study is that by contrasting the values obtained by these different techniques, a better prediction of exchange rates is achieved, as a basis for decisions related to the coverage of exchange risks.

Palabras clave : uncertainties; predictive techniques; decision making..

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