Introduction:

Influenza has a high impact on human mortality and in Cuba influenza and pneumonia rank fourth among its general causes. In temperate climate countries, with marked seasonality, this is captured by statistical models, a task that is difficult in the tropics and pending in Cuba due to the absence of the same seasonal definition.

Objective:

Estimate the historical impact of influenza type A and B and subtypes A(H3N2) and A(H1N1) on mortality, by adjusting a regression model to the specific seasonal conditions of Cuba.

Methods:

A longitudinal and retrospective study was performed. In a first step, two Poisson models were adjusted with influenza and total pneumonia mortality and people ≥ 65 years old as response variables in the five months with the highest positivity to influenza in the period 1987-1988 to 2004-2005, and the positive ones to type A and type B as explanatory variables. In another pair of models was estimated the impact of A(H3N2) and A(H1N1), considering as a response the deaths previously attributed to type A.

Results:

7 803 deaths among all ages and 6 152 among 65-year-olds were attributed to influenza, with 56.3% associated to A(H3N2), 17.6% to A(H1N1) and 26.1% to type B.

Conclusions:

It was possible to estimate the impact of influenza on mortality by adjusting for Cuba a statistical model that demonstrated the association of the circulation of these viruses with the mortality in the country, which confirms the need to strengthen surveillance, control and vaccination against this viral infection. The possibility of adjusting in the seasonal conditions of Cuba these regression models to other respiratory viruses and the current pandemic by COVID-19 is demonstrated.

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