Resumo

REYNOSO SANTOS, Roberto et al. Markov Chains and cellular automata for modeling land use change. riha [online]. 2016, vol.37, n.1, pp. 72-81. ISSN 1680-0338.

A scenario of land use was projected in the basin of river Metztitlan to 2025 using Markov chains-cellular automata. A generated map for 2007 Lands at 5 and Lands at 7 images and SPOT5 and 6 images for 2013 was applied. The irrigation agriculture, the unwatered agriculture and the forest will experience adecrease insurface. The uses of urban land, scrub and eroded scrub show a surface increase. The odds of permanence show that urban use poses no threat to the forest with 1,7%. A positive rate of deforestation for woody surface (1,42%) was recorded. For further modeling it is highly recommended to consider socioeconomic and biophysical variables to explain in more detail the processes that could either limit or enhance land use change.

Palavras-chave : cellular automata; Markov chains; land use change; Landsat; SPOT.

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