Resumo

MARCELO SCUDERI, Carlos; ADRIAN RICCARDI, Gerardo  e  ZIMMERMANN, Erik Daniel. Levels forecast for flood warning in Gran Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina. RIHA [online]. 2013, vol.34, n.2, pp. 88-102. ISSN 1680-0338.

In order to reduce flooding vulnerability in Rosario city and surroundings (Santa Fe, Argentina) the Provincial Water Authority managed the installation of a telemetric network to monitoring hydrological variables, along with the development of a river levels forecasting model. This paper presents the structure of the mathematical model used and some partial results. The model's architecture is based on four modules: rainfall generation, estimation of antecedent soil moisture conditions, initial loss and infiltration calculation, and runoff simulation and levels forecast. The performance of the proposed model was successful in terms of comparison between measured and forecasted levels. Medium-size events evidence the sensitivity of the results to the antecedent soil moisture conditions; while the results for important rain events have greater certainty.

Palavras-chave : distributed mathematical models; floods; hydrological alert systems; levels forecast.

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