Resumo

GUINOVART DIAZ, Raúl; ABELLO UGALDE, Isidro  e  MORALES LEZCA, Wilfredo. Occurrence of a COVID-19 fresh outbreak and its relationship to the reproduction number. Rev Cubana Hig Epidemiol [online]. 2020, vol.57  Epub 01-Set-2021. ISSN 1561-3003.

The danger of the occurrence of endemic COVID-19 worries the Cuban government as well as epidemiologists. Knowledge about a metric that influences its emergence is a very useful tool to prevent it. The purpose of the study was to prove through dynamic models and the qualitative theory of differential equations that the basic reproduction number R0 is a metric influencing the occurrence of these events. A SIR model was used, which was adjusted to Cuban conditions. Results showed that a mathematical response may be provided to conditions potentially causing a fresh outbreak of the disease. We recommend to maintain activated the epidemiological measures referred to in the paper, which help keep under control the confirmed cases occurring, thus preventing possible fresh outbreaks.

Palavras-chave : endemic; COVID-19; basic reproduction number; fresh outbreak and measures which may help prevent it from occurring.

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