Resumo

BETANCOURT BETANCOURT, José A; REVUELTAS, Moura; DIAZ, Carlos  e  RIVERO DONES, Jorge. Simulation of an outbreak of Influenza A H1N1 in a primary school from Camagüey. AMC [online]. 2011, vol.15, n.6, pp. 946-953. ISSN 1025-0255.

Background: the dynamics of modern life has demonstrated the need for the use of mathematical models and simulations for the analysis of the spread of diseases. Objective: to show the behavior of a possible outbreak of Influenza A H1N1 in a primary school. Method: a simulation using the model Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered was performed, during September 2009. It is assumed in the first simulation that was not taken any preventive action, in the second one, those measures were taken only after a week of the outbreak onset. The transmission index of 0.35, the duration of the disease of seven days and a latent period of one day was taken. Results: the simulation model showed in the case of not taking any action, how there would be a peak of the disease to the 13 days of being initiated, with a total of 190 patients, 99 recovered; only decline spontaneously to 50 days with the last patient, the basic reproductive number was 2.22. Conclusions: there is a set of tools for calculations and simulations that may be used in the province by epidemiologists and teachers of this branch of public health for free.

Palavras-chave : INFLUENZA A VIRUS; H1N1 SUBTYPE; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MALINGERING.

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