Resumo

VALDERA-FIGUEREDO, Nathalí; GONZALEZ-PEDROSO, Cecilia  e  PEREZ-SUAREZ, Ramón. Verification of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity forecast for the year 2017. Rev. Cubana Met. [online]. 2019, vol.25, n.1  Epub 01-Mar-2019. ISSN 2664-0880.

This paper presents the evaluation of the Atlantic Ocean’s cyclonic activity forecast for the year 2017, made on a synoptic-statistical method that takes into account the behavior of the fundamental oceanic and atmospheric conditions that regulate the cyclonic activity in the Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, the normalized deviations of the predicted and real values were compared, taking into account the averages for the period 1965 - 2016. In general, the basic considerations for the predicted activity were fulfilled satisfactorily when anticipating an active cyclonic season and resulting in the same way. The principal factors that favored cyclonic activity in the Atlantic basin during the year 2017 were the development of La Niña-Southern Oscillation event in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the heating of the waters of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, as well as the anticyclonic circulation in the upper troposphere, the weak vertical wind shear, and the below normal values of the atmospheric pressure at sea level in the tropical zone.

Palavras-chave : Cyclone Activity; Verification; Seasonal Forecast; Tropical Cyclones; Hurricanes.

        · resumo em Espanhol     · texto em Espanhol     · Espanhol ( pdf )