Resumo

SANABRIA, A.; FERNANDEZ, C. Albert  e  FERRER HERNANDEZ, A.. Study of the risk caused by extreme winds in Cuba. Rev. Cubana Met. [online]. 2020, vol.26, n.1  Epub 01-Mar-2020. ISSN 2664-0880.

The researches related to the return period of extreme winds in Cuba contain a limited number of meteorological stations and consider the annual maximum gusts of wind. In this sense, evaluate the danger caused by maximum winds in Cuba is the goal of this article. For that, maximum daily wind values ​​of the station records were use, which is quantified using the return period, using the technique of "Peaks on the Reference" to set the curve of extreme values ​​through the Generalized Pareto Distribution. The article also presents an efficient computational technique for the separation of wind types and the corresponding calculation of the PR curve for the synoptics and storm with the Reliability Interval for a 95% probability. This is important for the authorities that must prepare risk management plans and the incorporation of the required measures, as well as aid for urban planning, trying to avoid the development of urban centers in high risk regions. In general, it was found that the danger caused by non-hurricane winds in Cuba is relatively low. It was also found that the station records are adequate to calculate the danger caused by wind, although in some station’s errors were found in the characterization of the present weather conditions, so as part of this work a simple technique was implemented to correct these errors.

Palavras-chave : winds; extreme; return period; statistical analysis.

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