Resumo

BORRAJERO MONTEJO, Israel et al. Short term generation forecast for photovoltaic farms connected to the National Power Grid. Rev. Cubana Met. [online]. 2023, vol.29, n.4  Epub 01-Dez-2023. ISSN 2664-0880.

A very short term forecast (15 min) of photovoltaic generation from solar farms connected to the National Power Grid in Cuba is presented. The approach described here is based, on one side, on the Heliosat II method for the estimation of solar radiation from meteorological satellites visible images and on the other, on the Cloud Motion Vectors algorithm, which allows to produce an image extrapolated to a near future time based on two consecutive images already received. Both methods are combined to produce an irradiance forecast that is used to estimate the power generation for a given location. In this case, a sample of the available farms. With the available satellite images and processing power, this implementation allows to produce a 15 minutes forecast every 5 minutes achieving a correlation of 0.835 between predicted and reported values in the farms and a mean square error of 0.51 Mw.

Palavras-chave : Cloud Motion Vector; Solar Radiation; Forecasting; Short Term Forecast; Satellite Images.

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