Introduction:

The non-homogeneous behavior of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases in different regions of Cuba has not yet been clarified, which would be useful for decision-making in future epidemics in the country.

Objective:

To determine the influence of the arrival of travelers and the population density on the non-homogeneous distribution of the number of COVID-19 cases by provinces in Cuba.

Methods:

An ecological, exploratory, multiple group study was carried out, comparing Cuban provinces according to variables of the global and aggregate levels, related to the number of COVID-19 cases, confirmed during the epidemic in Cuba. Multiple linear regression analysis was applied to select the model that best describes the behavior of the data and cluster analysis to visualize the grouping of the provinces.

Results:

A significant correlation was proved between the number of COVID-19 cases and the number of travelers with COVID-19, the total number of travelers who arrived in Cuba in March, and transmission events. In the regression model, the population density and the total number of travelers and those with COVID-19 were significant. The cluster analysis revealed the formation of four groups of provinces.

Conclusions:

The number of cases with COVID-19 by province is related to the number of travelers who arrived in the country, with and with no COVID-19, and the population density. Four groups of provinces are formed by their similarity in the aspects identified at regression.

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