Resumo

RODRIGUEZ FONTES, Raúl; DIAZ RODRIGUEZ, Pedro A; MORENO LAZO, Mirna  e  BACALLAO GALLESTEY, Jorge. Capacidad predictiva de varios indicadores de selección para el ingreso a la carrera de medicina. Educ Med Super [online]. 2000, vol.14, n.2, pp. 128-135. ISSN 0864-2141.

The predictive capacity of aptitude tests, the academic index and the college admission tests are studied in relation to the academic results obtained at the end of the first year. To this end, a group of sudents from the X Contingent of the ?Carlos J, Finlay´ Detachment that entered the university during the course 1991-1992 were taken as a training sample. The information used was obtained as part of the selective process and it was based on the marks attained in the different subjects of the curriculum. An average over 4 was considered as an academic success. Due to the binary nature of the dependent variable, models of logistic regression were used as an analytical procedure for prognosis. It was confirmed the relevance of the academic index as a predictor of the academic results and new evidences about the poor productive capacity of the admission test were given. Some evidences favoring the use of oral reasoning tests were also obtained. To conclude, some strategic recommendations in relation to eventual policies are given for the process of admission.

Palavras-chave : SCHOOL ADMISSION CRITERIA; APTITUDE TESTS; COLLEGE ADMISSION TEST; STUDENTS, MEDICAL;; LOGISTIC MODELS; SCHOOLS, MEDICAL..

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