Resumo

BACALLAO GALLESTEY, Jorge; PARAPAR, José M; ROQUE, Mercedes  e  BACALLAO GUERRA, Jorge. La modelación jerárquica y los efectos de grupo en la predicción del rendimiento académico. Educ Med Super [online]. 2004, vol.18, n.2, pp. 1-1. ISSN 0864-2141.

The present paper was aimed at demonstrating that the group acts as a modifier of the relation between the academic performance and its predictors, and at founding the need of resorting to hierarchical modelling to predict this performance. Models with randomized coefficients, specially appropriate for the frequent circumstance of grouped cases, where the suppossed ordinary lineal models are not valid anymore and the classical models are unapplicable, were applied. It was proved that some of the traditonal predictors were relevant according to the group, though they did not seem to have marginal relevancy. This way, it was demonstrated that the group was a modullator of the relation between academic performance and some of its predictors. The most significant consequence was that the assignation of a student to a group may influence considerably on his academic performance, independently of its initial conditions.

Palavras-chave : MULTILEVEL MODELS; MIXED EFFECTS MODELS; PERFORMANCE PREDICTION; GROUP EFFECT..