Resumo

ROBERTO FONSECA PANTOJA, Ricardo  e  FONSECA GONZALEZ, Zulin. Mathematical modeling of the autochthonous cases of Covid-19. Bayamo Municipality. February- August 2021. Multimed [online]. 2021, vol.25, n.6  Epub 22-Nov-2021. ISSN 1028-4818.

The Bayamo municipality accumulated 8162 autochthonous positive cases from February to August in 2021, it is the center of the epidemic in the province of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 determined by the C-Reactive Protein test, represents the 53.2% of the total cases in that period in Granma, very different from what happened in 2020 in which the province accumulated only 185 infected people in nine months, with a rate of 22.6, the lowest in Cuba. Granma province accumulated 119 deaths in August / 2021, which represents 62.9% of all deaths since the pandemic began until August, which indicates the high incidence of the epidemic that exists at the moment. For the mathematical modeling and analysis of the autochthonous positive cases of all those that occurred during the months of February to August in 2021 in Bayamo, polynomials of degree three and four were obtained that model the behavior of the epidemic during the seven months analyzed. as well as that of the deceased during the month of August in Granma with a predictive character greater than 98% in all models.

Palavras-chave : Epidemic; COVID-19; Statistical-mathematical model; Regression equation; Moving average; Forecast; Epidemiological pending.

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