Resumo

VAZQUEZ PADILLA, Maydeé. Demographic scenarios for Havana in the period 2017-2040. Rev Nov Pob [online]. 2020, vol.16, n.32, pp. 350-380.  Epub 30-Mar-2021. ISSN 1817-4078.

The objective of this work is to update the projections of the population of Havana in the period 2017-2040, with the aim of making recommendations that serve as the basis for the proper attention of the Havana population, taking into account past behavior, present and future of the main demographic variables: fertility, mortality and migrations. A study of the demographic perspectives of the population of Havana in the period 2017-2040 is shown, based on the construction of six projection scenarios, as well as the creation of updated Own Mortality Model Tables for Havana in the period 2015- 2017 by sex and five-year age groups. The results of the work have shown that what would happen in the capital if a certain demographic trend occurs in the period of analysis. The Havana population tends to decrease in the six projection scenarios proposed resulting from the combination of the different hypotheses about demographic components. The fertility and migration variables seem to be the most likely to influence population dynamics in the future and an increase in the degree of aging in the province would be observed, which is essential in future demographic evolution.

Palavras-chave : demography; fertility; migration; mortality; projection.

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