Resumo

CHICAS SOTO, Rodolfo Augusto; VANEGAS CHACON, Eddi Alejandro  e  GARCIA ALVAREZ, Nancy. Crop loss probability in dry farming in the Torja river basin, Chiquimula, Guatemala. Rev Cie Téc Agr [online]. 2014, vol.23, n.2, pp. 34-39. ISSN 2071-0054.

The semi-arid region in eastern Guatemala, mainly rural areas, is characterized by the scarcity of water resources, where rainfall is insufficient to ensure the production of dry farming. So this research generates a logistic model that determines the probability of crop loss in dry farming in the Torja river basin, Chiquimula, Guatemala. The basic information was collected through fieldwork in 57 plots in the study area. These plots were transformed to map units that were plotted on the map scale of crop loss 1:100 000 from the Torja river basin developed by SIG-CUNORI, in 2012, to establish the status of crop loss as partially or total. Using the computer program XLSTAT 2013.4 logistic regression model, it was possible to provide the probability of crop loss based on variables of social, environmental and edaphic types. With a significance level of 5%, Nagelkerke R2 of 0,70 and non significant Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Was concluded that the variables that explain the crop loss are the intensity of land use, altitude and precipitation.

Palavras-chave : crop loss; dry farming; water deficit; logistic regression model.

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