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Retos de la Dirección
versão On-line ISSN 2306-9155
Resumo
RODRIGUEZ RODRIGUEZ, Giordano; ALVAREZ ALVAREZ, Néstor; RAMIREZ VARONA, Rafael Feliciano e ALMEIDA BORGES, Magaly. Evaluation of the Behavior of COVID-19 Pandemic, and Evolution Forecasting. Rev retos [online]. 2021, vol.15, n.2, pp. 108-121. Epub 28-Ago-2021. ISSN 2306-9155.
Aim:
to propose indicators and procedures that assist in the evaluation, and prediction of the behavior of COVID-19 pandemic, using basic mathematical knowledge.
Methods and techniques:
search of information about the behavior of the pandemic in different scenarios, and the application of mathematical and statistical methods.
Main results:
indicators and procedures that contribute to the evaluation of the situation caused by COVID-19, and forecasting possible rises of infected cases and deaths, to help in decision-making.
Conclusions:
the indicators and procedures suggested contribute to the evaluation of the behavior of COVID-19 pandemic, and to short and mid-term forecasting of its behavior, for decision-making by sanitary and government authorities.
Palavras-chave : COVID-19; health indicator; increase of daily infected cases; average increase; new lethality.
