Resumo

MARTINEZ-PEREZ, Beatriz  e  ROQUE-RODRIGUEZ, Alfredo. Very-short term wind power forecast for Gibara I Wind Farm using an autorregressive model. Rev. Cubana Met. [online]. 2019, vol.25, n.2  Epub 01-Jun-2019. ISSN 2664-0880.

Cuba is advancing in the exploitation of wind energy. At present, it doesn´t exists very-short term wind power forecast for wind farms at the country. This paper intends to achieve, using statistics methods, a very short-therm forecast of wind power that will generate Gibara I Wind Power Farm. For that it will be obtained an autoregressive moving average model to forecast wind speed in a very - short term at 50 m level; to evaluating model forecast´quality by calculating various statisticians and finally to combining the wind speed forecast with Gibara I Wind Farm´power curve to obtain the wind power forecast. Wind speed time series at 50 m level, coming from Los Cocos wind power prospection tower, located in Gibara, Holguin, was used. The model was selected by the use of Akaike´s criteria. It forecasted so well wind speed, with an error which is comparable with another results for this wind farm. The correlation between real data and the forecast was good. Finally, the wind power forecasted was obtained. This results contribute to a better planning of very short-term operations inside the wind farm, whit the aim of the decrease of power losses if Gibara I Wind Farm way out of National Energetic System.

Palavras-chave : Wind power; forecast; ARMA; Gibara.

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