Resumo

DOMINGUEZ-HURTADO, Ismabel María  e  SOTO-VALERO, César. Prognosis of the conditions of cattle livestock in Cuba through ARIMA models. Rev. Cubana Met. [online]. 2020, vol.26, n.2  Epub 01-Jun-2020. ISSN 2664-0880.

The objective of this work was focused on modeling to predict animal conditions through the use of time series for Cuba. The analysis was based on the temperature and humidity index (ITH) calculated from the data of 64 meteorological stations of the country, grouped into three regions: east, center and west. Dickey - Fuller and KPSS tests were applied to identify the seasonal series. Holt Winters method of the family of time series of exponential smoothing was used. The best models were those corresponding to the eastern zone (1,1, 2) (0,0,1) 52 and (0,0,1) (0,1,1) 12. In addition, the analysis was carried out for a La Piedra weather station (Manicaragua, Villa Clara, Cuba).

Palavras-chave : temporal series; ARIMA; THI.

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