Resumo

VALDERA FIGUEREDO, Nathalí  e  GONZALEZ FRAGUELA, Eileen. Structural analysis of the effectiveness of the forecasts of the Cuban Institute of Meteorology. Rev. Cubana Met. [online]. 2023, vol.29, n.2  Epub 01-Jun-2023. ISSN 2664-0880.

In Cuba, the predictions issued by the Forecast Center (CenPro) of the Cuban Institute of Meteorology since 1978 are verified. Although this practice continues to this day, the verification process has undergone variations since then, either due to changes in the procedures, modifications in the software used for it, or redistribution of forecast regions and areas. For this reason, the objective of this research is to carry out a structural analysis of the forecast effectiveness series in order to identify which methodologies and/or regionalizations implemented caused an alteration in the behavior of data serie.

Data related to the effectiveness of weather forecasts were extracted from monthly and quarterly verification summaries made between 1980 and 2020. Once the normality of the dataset was verified, it was applied the Bai-Perron test to detect multiple change points in a time series, revealing the existence of two significant breakpoints in the years 1996 and 2002. Thus, the series of the CenPro predictions effectiveness was divided into three homogeneous subperiods: 1980-1995, 1996-2001 and 2002-2020

Palavras-chave : Time series; Structural Analysis; Change Point; Forecast Verification; Effectiveness.

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