Resumo

DOMINGUEZ GONZALEZ, Erian Jesús; CISNEROS DOMINGUEZ, Carmen María; PINA PRIETO, Luis Roberto  e  ROMERO GARCIA, Lázaro Ibrahim. Mortality predictive factors in patients with mechanical bowel occlusion. MEDISAN [online]. 2015, vol.19, n.5, pp. 587-592. ISSN 1029-3019.

A cohort longitudinal, prospective study of 191 patients with mechanical bowel occlusion surgically treated in the Surgery Service of "Saturnino Lora Torres" Provincial Teaching Clinical Surgical Hospital in Santiago de Cuba was carried out from January, 2011 to December, 2013, to identify the mortality predictive factors. The sample was divided into 2 cohorts: 165 alive patients and 26 dead patients; also, the data analysis was based on the design of a multivariate model (multivariable logistical regression), by means of which it was confirmed that the age over 60 years, the beginning of the symptoms after 48 hours, the physical perianesthesic condition IV and V, the vascular damage, the resecting procedures, the shock and the postoperative complications, showed independent relation to death. Sensibility, 73.1 and specificity, 98.8% were considered and the global predictive percentage was excellent (95.3)

Palavras-chave : mechanical bowel occlusion; predictive model; mortality; secondary health care.

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