Resumen

BORROTO DIAZ, Gerardo  y  RODRIGUEZ PEREZ, Hilario. Predictive model proposal related to the possible development of renal post-transplantation diabetes mellitus. Rev cubana med [online]. 2009, vol.48, n.1. ISSN 0034-7523.

Renal post-transplantation diabetes mellitus if frequent, early, multifactor, and of a peculiar significance; it is linked to appearance of a chronic nephropathy, and cardiovascular processes, mainly causes of mortality, and graft failure. A total of 307 renal transplantation patients were studied, excluding the diabetic ones before transplantation, the re-transplantation, and those whose graft don't exceed of a year of life to create a predictive model allowing know the possibilities percentage to develop this condition. We made a retrospective cohort study, considering pre-transplantation complications. We applied a binary logistic regression model with a statistic significance < 0, 05 and/or a odds ratio different from 1, recipient age, familiar backgrounds of diabetes, infection from hepatitis C, cholesterol figures, triglycerides, and pre-transplantation glycemia. We create a Excel system program allowing us to made the prediction. Now, it is essential to validate this proposal by means of a prospective, multicenter study including a great number of patients.

Palabras clave : Post-transplantation diabetes mellitus; predictive program; risk factor; logistic regression.

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