Resumen

PADRON SANCHEZ, Armando et al. Validación del sistema predictivo Apache II en un grupo de pacientes ingresados en la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos. Rev Cub Med Mil [online]. 2003, vol.32, n.2. ISSN 0138-6557.

Predicitve models have become an efficient tool as long as common sense and the experience in its use prevail. A prospective longitudinal cohort inference study was conducted at the Intensive Care Unit of "Dr. Luis Díaz Soto" Military Central Hospital. The analyzed variables were those included in the system of Evaluation of the Acute and Chronic Physiological State (APACHE II). Their value, the prediction-death ratio, and the adjusted prediction-death ratio were calculated at 24 and 48 hours. The calibration was compared by using the Chi square test, and the discrimination by comparing the area under the odds curve (ROC). Values over 30 points demonstrated more than 80 % of death probability. The figure of 40 points or more proved to be 100 % fatal in the study. The APACHE II system showed better calibration and discrimination at 24 hours than at 48 hours (p<0.05).

Palabras clave : FORECASTING [methods]; APACHE; INTENSIVE CARE; PROSPECTIVE STUDIES.

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