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vol.153 suppl.1Development Strategy and economic growth in Cuba: two sides of the same coinConsistency framework for analysis and evaluation of the macroeconomic behavior in Cuba author indexsubject indexarticles search
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Economía y Desarrollo

Print version ISSN ISSNOn-line version ISSN 0252-8584

Abstract

HIDALGO DE LOS SANTOS, Vilma  and  CRIBEIRO DIAZ, Yordanka. Strategy for Growth and Macroeconomic balance in Cuba. Econ. y Desarrollo [online]. 2015, vol.153, suppl.1, pp.30-48. ISSN ISSN.

Guaranteeing a sustainable growth is one of the challenges of Cuba's current economic model updating. This work asses the sources and restrictions of economic growth in Cuba, in order to evaluate the requirements in a gradual growth strategy. To this end, a formal model of macroeconomic consistency in a six year scenario is designed. The resulting projections show a relative adjustment of consumption and public spending in favor of capital gross formation. Likewise, combining growth goals with a reduction in external debt demands to recompose external funding in favor of direct foreign investment. A more favorable scenario will only be possible due to an increase in growth rates, backed by an increase in total factor productivity and qualification contribution; better efficiency and effectiveness of public spending and a gradual improvement in trade elasticity, as a result of the necessaries structural changes.

Keywords : macroeconomic consistency; fiscal sustainability; external sustainability; funding needs; productivity; structural change.

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