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Revista Archivo Médico de Camagüey

versión On-line ISSN 1025-0255

Resumen

BETANCOURT, José A et al. Simulation of an acute respiratory disease outbreak in Camagüey municipality. AMC [online]. 2009, vol.13, n.3. ISSN 1025-0255.

Background: The mathematical models constitute a powerful tool to model reality processes, their results are of great utility to optimize the resources that are generally limited, with them may direct effective measures that increase the understanding of the phenomenon in study, these should be as simple as it is possible, but should be precise, flexible and transparent. Objective: To carry out simulations with the SIR pattern that is pretend to introduce fundamentally in teaching, in the epidemic analyses and when taking decisions. Methods: The cases of acute respiratory diseases of the year 2007 in Camagüey municipality, are analyzed, 160 422 cases were reported, the population at the end of that year was about 788 058 inhabitants, In this model, "Susceptible, Infected and Recovered", S+R+I=N, where N is the population's total, (?) is the transmissibility index and (Y) the recovery index. All these formulas were carried out in the Matlab version 7,4 program of the 2006. Results: Different behaviors are shown for a population without immunity, for the same population with the half immunized and for the initial situation with the sickpeople isolation at the fifth day of the epidemic outbreak. Different behaviors are shown for three different transmissibility indexes. Conclusions: It is possible to use the "Susceptible, Infected and Recovered" pattern, for teaching and for the epidemic analyses and to keep in mind the indicator called "basic reproductive number", the one which indicates us the secondary cases that generates a primary case, and it constitutes in the modern Epidemiology an indicator of the advance of the control measures and the severity of epidemics.

Palabras clave : Diseases outbreaks; respiratory tract diseases [effect].

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