Abstract

RODRIGUEZ VELASQUEZ, Javier et al. Temporary probabilistic dynamics of the dengue's epidemic in Colombia. Rev Cubana Hig Epidemiol [online]. 2011, vol.49, n.1, pp.74-83. ISSN 1561-3003.

Studying some epidemical diseases have been applied different models also mathematical like epidemiological, towards understand and predict the dynamical of this phenomena. These methodologies are founded in search for acausal relations, like climate, pluvial precipitation, demographic movements and more, which difficult to generalize these predictions. Starting from the construction of two sample spaces for probability, which quantify the annual infected number of dengue in Colombia in ranges of 5.000 and 10.000 infected, and from the probabilistic behaviour along consecutive group of years, it was made a temporal prediction about cases number of dengue in Colombia. The prediction for infected people for 2007 year was founded in the ranges 35000-45000 and 37500-42500, values calculated with the ranges of 10000 and 5000 respectively. These values ware corroborated with the National Health Institute data, for the accumulate value in the epidemiological week number 52, equals to 43564 cases in Colombia, it was evident a mathematical self-organization for the dynamics of infected people for dengue epidemics of predictive way. To study the probabilities along the epidemic dynamics led to predict the infected people for 2007, in a simple way, directly probed and useful, avoiding the causal problem for some mathematical models and establishing predictions in a more easy way, economizing sources and time.

Keywords : Walking probabilistic; probability; epidemic; dengue.

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