Introduction:

The first record of the causal association between the Aedes aegypti mosquito and the transmission of yellow fever was the communication submitted by Carlos J. Finlay to the Havana Academy of Sciences in 1881. The Cuban scientist showed the results of inoculation, by infected mosquito bite, in five subjects from a group of 20 healthy people.

Objective:

To revise the evidence through the use of statistical techniques not yet developed at the time of the Cuban scientist and to evaluate the strength of the causal evidence.

Methods:

Results were analyzed using Fisher's exact test, Bayes factor, and risk difference, relative risk, and odds ratio of association. The strength of the evidence of the causal association was assessed using statistical criteria minding the most up-to-date causality criteria.

Results:

Fisher's exact test was highly significant (p = 0.009), and the Bayes factor (24.9) was compatible with strong evidence in favor of the association between inoculation and disease development. The association was also supported by the risk difference (0.55; 95% CI: 0.15-0.96), the relative risk (18.7; 95% CI: 1.12-310.3), and the odds ratio (43.4; 95% CI: 1.68-1119.7).

Conclusions:

Finlay's results were robust, and adjusted to the causality criteria to explain the transmission of yellow fever by mosquitoes.

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