Resumen

MIRANDA GOMEZ, Osvaldo et al. Behavior of the HIV epidemics in Cuba. Rev. Med. Electrón. [online]. 2012, vol.34, n.1, pp. 07-24. ISSN 1684-1824.

Introduction: The HIV/AIDS infection is considered a public health problem around the world. The firsts diagnostics were made in 1981, and since that the number of infected persons has increased. Cuba is not free from to this phenomenon and we continue working to stop the advance of the epidemics in the country. Objective: Characterizing the behavior of the HIV epidemics in Cuba and making a prognostic model for the following years. Methods: The universe was formed by all the diagnoses of Cuban people infected with the HIV between 1986 and 2010. Data were obtained from the HIV/AIDS data base of the Public health Ministry of Cuba. We analyzed the epidemics taking into account the components of the chronologic series. For making the model of the prognostic we used the exponential smoothening with two parameters. For processing and analyzing data we used the statistic packages SPSS version 11.5, Statistic version 6.0, Econometric Views version 4.0 and the program MapInfo Professional Version 7.5. Results: We considered that there was not any randomization in the chronologic series, but there it was a cyclic pattern. The HIV incidence rate showed a growing tendency, increasing 90,70 % with respect of the extreme years of the series. The relation man/woman was one woman diagnosed per four men. The 56,87 % of the diagnosed people were homo-bisexual ones, most of them male. The most affected age group was the 20-24 years-old group. The capital of the country reported the biggest incidence rate of cases. The most affected municipalities were urban and had a high population density. Conclusions: The incidence of the HIV positive people's diagnosis maintains an increasing tendency due to the men having sex with other men. The age group with higher incidence is the 20-24 years-old one. The bigger quantity of the cases stems from urban and densely populated regions.

Palabras clave : Human Immunodeficiency Virus infection; incidence; seropositive; HIV positives.