Resumen

ALBIZU-CAMPOS ESPINEIRA, Juan Carlos. Cuba. Demographic scenarios towards 2030. Rev Nov Pob [online]. 2015, vol.11, n.21. ISSN 1817-4078.

This paper is an attempt to build up demographic scenarios for Cuba towards 2030 taking into consideration the basic elements of population change in the recent trends of the variables that determine its dynamics. The elements considered keys to model its potential evolution are under discussion, because in the current context, forecasting the future behavior of the population, at least until the medium term and as accurately as possible, becomes crucial in order to provide increasingly sophisticated criteria for shaping the policies to reach the best possible conditions in the process of economic development.

Palabras clave : Cuba; demographic scenarios; mortality; fertility; migration; population projection.

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