Resumo

GARCES RAMIREZ, Kendry; BARROS DIAZ, Otilia; FERNANDEZ RODRIGUEZ, Miguel  e  FERNANDEZ NOGUEL, Maribel. Las Tunas. Demographic Scenarios of the Population. 2015-2030. Rev Nov Pob [online]. 2021, vol.17, n.34, pp. 327-353.  Epub 01-Dez-2021. ISSN 1817-4078.

The objective of the article is to present the results of the demographic scenarios of the population of the province Las Tunas 2015-2030, based on the current situation of demographic variables, fecundity, mortality and migrations. The scenarios presented complement the projections elaborated by the National Statistic Office. The results obtained project a slow population growth that, from the 2015-2020 period could begin to decrease, and an increase in the speed of the aging process. The fundamental factors in the future behavior of the population are located in the level of fertility and in young population's loss as a result of the migratory movement. The attention to the demographic dynamics of the province is a key factor in the development planning and management process for the coming years.

Palavras-chave : demographic dynamics; population aging; demographic scenarios; population.

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