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Revista Ciencias Técnicas Agropecuarias
versão On-line ISSN 2071-0054
Resumo
ALONSO BRITO, Gustavo Reinel. Probabilistic prediction of discharge and sediment yield for extreme events. Part I: Blueprint methodology. Rev Cie Téc Agr [online]. 2016, vol.25, n.3, pp.31-42. ISSN 2071-0054. http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.36800.94727.
This paper intends to introduce a blueprint methodology for predicting discharges and sediment yield under extreme conditions using a process-based hydrologic system model. In a next paper, part II, a case study application of this methodology will be presented. The methodology is organized in: 1) model setup (calibration and validation for extremes), 2) extreme value analysis, 3) stochastic rainfall disaggregation and 4) probability predictions and interpretation of the KINEROS2 (recommended physically-based model) outputs. This methodology introduces a study of the random component under rainfall-runoff process and allows predicting capabilities of unseen extreme events
Palavras-chave : Probability prediction; modelling; discharge; sediment; extreme events.