Introduction:

Third molars are the last permanent teeth to erupt according to the dental formula of today's man, but they usually present difficulties for their correct location in the dental arches.

Objective:

To develop a predictive cephalometric model for the eruption of third molars.

Methods:

It was carried out a study in Santiago de Cuba from 2015 to 2020 with two methodological moments (observational, analytical cohort and another of development and technological innovation). They were used three random samples (n 1=160 adolescents, n 2=21 young people, n 3=29 experts). The variables were: location, posterior bone space, angulation and mesiodistal diameter of the third molars, obtained through panoramic x-ray.

Results:

The local variables associated with abnormal eruption of third molars in group 1 were: insufficient posterior bone space, inadequate mesiodistal angulation and diameter. These were introduced in a logistic regression model to determine the predictive factors of abnormal eruption according to results of the location of each third molar resulting in inadequate angulation for 1.8% of the cases (risk of abnormal eruption of 4.3%), inadequate angulation and mesiodistal diameter (risk of abnormal eruption of 4.2% and 40.8% respectively) for 2.8% of the cases, the inadequate mesiodistal diameter (risk of abnormal bud of 25.9% and 10.1% respectively) for 3.8% and 4.8%. of the cases. The level of acceptance of the model exceeded 80% in the validation, being statistically significant.

Conclusions:

The validated cephalometric model is viable in the process of predicting the eruption of third molars in childhood and adolescence.

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