<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1684-1824</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Médica Electrónica]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev.Med.Electrón.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1684-1824</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Matanzas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1684-18242020000602560</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Validación externa del modelo predictivo de mortalidad en ancianos con neumonía adquirida en la comunidad]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[External validation of the predictive model of mortality in elder people with community-acquired pneumonia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[García Álvarez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pedro Julio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Hospital Docente Militar Dr. Carlos J. Finlay  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ La Habana]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>42</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<fpage>2560</fpage>
<lpage>2574</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1684-18242020000602560&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1684-18242020000602560&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1684-18242020000602560&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Introducción: la neumonía adquirida en la comunidad es la enfermedad infecciosa que conlleva una mayor mortalidad en los países desarrollados. El diagnóstico pasa por varios momentos, el cuadro clínico, la analítica y las imágenes.  Objetivos: realizar la validación externa de un modelo matemático predictivo de mortalidad en pacientes ingresados por neumonía grave adquirida en la comunidad.  Material y métodos:  estudio longitudinal prospectivo (cohorte) con un grupo, con todos los pacientes que ingresaron en la Unidad de Cuidados intensivos emergentes con el diagnóstico de neumonía adquirida en la comunidad en el Hospital Militar Dr. Carlos J. Finlay, de febrero de 2018 hasta marzo del 2019. El universo estuvo constituido por 160 pacientes y no se tomó muestra alguna.  Resultados:  índice de Kappa K=1. Test Hosmer Lemenshow 0,650 con elevado ajuste. Resultados del modelo con sensibilidad= 79%. Especificidad: 91% con (VPP): 80 y (VPN)= 91. RR: 9,1. Área bajo la Curva = 0997. Porcentaje de aciertos en la regresión logística de 88,4 %.  Conclusiones:  el modelo propuesto constituyo una herramienta útil en la detección temprana de pacientes con riesgo de muerte a corto plazo. Permitió unificar en una sola variable el resultado de otras que aparentemente no tienen relación entre ellas; con lo que se hace más fácil la interpretación de los resultados, toda vez que este refleja, el conjunto y no la individualidad.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[SUMMARY  Introduction:  community-acquired pneumonia is the infectious disease leading to higher mortality in developed countries. The diagnosis goes through several moments, clinical symptoms, analytics, and images.  Objective:  to perform the external validation of a predictive mathematical model of mortality in patients admitted by serious community-acquired pneumonia.  Methods:  longitudinal prospective (cohort) study with a group formed with all patients who were admitted to the Emergent Intensive Care Unit in the Military Hospital ¨Dr. Carlos Juan Finlay¨ with the diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia, from February 2018 to March 2019. The universe was formed by 160 patients and no sample was chosen.  Results:  Kappa index K= 1. Hosmer Lemenshow test= 0.650 with a high adjustment. Result of the model with sensibility= 79 %. Specificity= 91 % with (APV) = 80 and (NPV) = 91. RR= 9.1. Area under the curve= 0997. Percentage of correctness in logistic regression of 88.4 %.  Conclusions:  The proposed model was a useful tool in the early detection of patients at near-term death risk. It allowed to unite in an only variant the result of others that apparently are not related one to another, making it easier the interpretation of the results, since it reflects the whole and not the individuality.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mortalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[neumonía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo predictivo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[mortality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[pneumonia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[predictive model]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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