<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0864-3466</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Cubana de Salud Pública]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev Cubana Salud Pública]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0864-3466</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editorial Ciencias Médicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0864-34662020000500013</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[El modelo SIR básico y políticas antiepidémicas de salud pública para la COVID-19 en Cuba]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The Basic SIR Model and Antiepidemic Policies in Public Health against COVID-19 in Cuba]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Abelló Ugalde]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Isidro Alfredo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Guinovart Díaz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Raúl]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Morales Lezca]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Wilfredo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de La Habana Centro de Estudios para el Perfeccionamiento de la Educación Superior (CEPES) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[La Habana ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de La Habana Facultad de Matemática y Computación (MATCOM) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[La Habana ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>46</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0864-34662020000500013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0864-34662020000500013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0864-34662020000500013&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN El modelo básico SIR (Susceptibles-Infectados-Recuperados) de Kermack y McKendrick, es un modelo de compartimentos donde la población bajo estudio se divide en clases epidemiológicas y se describe un flujo entre ellas. Un sistema sanitario robusto que proporcione al modelo datos confiables y aunados a políticas públicas de salud coherentes, contribuye a controlar los impactos de contingencias epidémicas. De ahí que el objetivo del presente estudio sea aplicar el modelo SIR, sin profundizar en el aparato matemático que lo acompaña, para conocer el impacto de la COVID-19 en Cuba, con énfasis en La Habana, como centro de la epidemia en el país en el período del 11 de marzo al 16 de julio de 2020. Para ello se muestra el modelo con coeficientes variables en el tiempo y su utilidad como modelo dinámico para hacer proyecciones en situaciones epidémicas; se aplica a regiones locales específicas y se manifiestan sus potencialidades para analizar rebrotes por la aparición de eventos locales que se alejan de las predicciones previstas. Este trabajo es parte de los esfuerzos que, en todos los órdenes, ha desarrollado el Ministerio de Salud Pública de Cuba para enfrentar la pandemia de la COVID-19.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT The basic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model of Kermack-McKendrick is a compartmental model in which the population under study is divided into epidemiological classes, in between which a flow is described. A robust health system that provides reliable data to the model and combined with coherent public health policies contributes to controlling the impacts of epidemic contingencies. Hence, the objective of this study is to apply the SIR model, without delving into the mathematical apparatus that accompanies it, to know the impact of COVID-19 in Cuba, with an emphasis on Havana, as the center of the epidemic in the country in the period from March 11 to July 16, 2020. To do this, the model is shown with variable coefficients over time, together with its usefulness as a dynamic model to make projections in epidemic situations. It is applied to specific local regions and its potentialities to analyze outbreaks are manifested by the onset of local events that are far from the foreseen predictions. This work is part of the efforts that, in all orders, the Cuban Ministry of Public Health has developed to confront the COVID-19 pandemic.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[epidemiología]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos matemáticos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[salud pública]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[epidemiology]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[mathematical models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[public health]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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