<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1727-897X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[MediSur]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Medisur]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1727-897X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos, Centro Provincial de Ciencias Médicas, Provincia de Cienfuegos.]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1727-897X2020000300431</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Estudio sobre modelos predictivos para la COVID-19 en Cuba]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Study on predictive models for COVID-19 in Cuba]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Medina Mendieta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Juan Felipe]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés Cortés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manuel Eduardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Cortés Iglesias]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manuel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pérez Fernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Annia del Carmen]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Manzano Cabrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Marianelis]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Carlos Rafael Rodríguez  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cienfuegos Cienfuegos]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Poder Popular Provincial  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Cienfuegos Cienfuegos]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2020</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>18</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<fpage>431</fpage>
<lpage>442</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1727-897X2020000300431&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1727-897X2020000300431&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1727-897X2020000300431&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Fundamento:  ante la pandemia provocada por el nuevo coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, resulta importante la estimación del crecimiento de casos infestados y decesos de la población cubana.  Objetivo:  obtener predicciones para el pico de casos confirmados y fallecidos en Cuba por la COVID- 19, haciendo uso de herramientas estadísticas e informáticas.  Métodos:  el método de los mínimos cuadrados fue utilizado para la obtención de los parámetros utilizando modelos lineales (MCL) y no lineales (MCNL). Los modelos logísticos y exponenciales, como la curva de crecimiento logístico, utilizada para modelar el crecimiento poblacional (modelos de crecimiento de Gompertz), se aplicaron en el pronóstico del crecimiento de casos infectados y/o decesos respectivamente.  Resultados:  existe una adecuación de los modelos presentados con respecto a los valores pronosticados y los reales lo cual permite una confiabilidad de los mismos para los pronósticos efectuados para Cuba.  Conclusiones:  los modelos estadísticos de predicciones obtenidos dan resultados muy significativos para el estudio de la pandemia COVID-19 en Cuba.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Foundation:  on the pandemic caused by the new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, it is important to estimate the growth of infested cases and deaths of the Cuban population.  Objective:  to obtain predictions for the peak of confirmed and deceased cases in Cuba by COVID-19, using statistical and computer tools.  Methods:  the least squares method was used to obtain the parameters using linear (MCL) and nonlinear (MCNL) models. Logistic and exponential models, such as the logistic growth curve, used to model population growth (Gompertz growth models), were applied to the growth prediction of infected cases and / or deaths, respectively.  Results:  there is an adequacy of the presented models with respect to the predicted and the real values which allow their reliability for the predictions made for Cuba.  Conclusions:  statistical prediction models obtained give very significant results for the COVID-19 pandemic study in Cuba.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[infecciones por coronavirus]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cuba]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[coronavirus infections]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[forecasting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Cuba]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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