<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0138-6557</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Cubana de Medicina Militar]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. cuban. med. mil.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0138-6557</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro Nacional de Información de Ciencias MédicasEditorial Ciencias Médicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0138-65572023000400025</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo predictivo del fracaso de la terapia eléctrica en la fibrilación auricular paroxística]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Predictive model of electrical therapy failure in paroxysmal atrial fibrillation]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rosabal García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yoandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rosales Guibert]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Eddy Alberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Torres-Quiñones]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Lorchen]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro de Cirugía Cardiovascular y Cardiología  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Santiago de Cuba]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Hospital Militar Dr. "Joaquín Castillo Duany&#8221;  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Santiago de Cuba]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Ciencias Médicas Santiago de Cuba  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Santiago de Cuba]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>52</volume>
<numero>4</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0138-65572023000400025&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0138-65572023000400025&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0138-65572023000400025&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Introducción:  La fibrilación auricular es la arritmia recurrente más habitual en la práctica clínica. Su prevalencia se multiplica en la población actual y tiene diferentes causas fisiopatológicas que la convierten en una pandemia mundial.  Objetivos:  Diseñar un modelo predictivo de fracaso de la terapia eléctrica en pacientes con fibrilación auricular paroxística.  Métodos:  Se realizó un estudio de casos y controles, con 33 casos y 66 controles. Variables predictoras: edad, fracción de eyección &#8804; 40 %, volumen de aurícula izquierda &#8805; 34 mL/m2. A partir de la regresión logística se obtuvo un modelo en el que fueron incluidos el valor predictivo positivo, valor predictivo negativo, la sensibilidad y especificidad.  Resultados:  Los factores de riesgo predictores fueron: edad &#8805; 55 años (p= 0,013; odds ratio (OR)= 3,58; intervalo de confianza -IC- 95 %: 1,33-9,67); la fracción de eyección del ventrículo izquierdo (FEVI) &#8804; 40 % se observó en 20 pacientes (22,7 %) (p= 0,004; OR= 4,45; IC95 %: 1,54-12,8); presión de aurícula izquierda elevada, volumen de aurícula izquierda elevado (p= 0,004; OR= 3,11; IC95 %: 1,24-8,77), según el modelo de regresión logística. Se realizó la validación interna por división de datos; se confirmó que el modelo pronostica bien los que van a tener éxito en el resultado terapéutico.  Conclusiones:  El modelo predictivo elaborado está compuesto por los predictores edad &gt; 55 años, FEVI; volumen de aurícula izquierda; presenta un buen ajuste y poder discriminante, sobre todo valor predictivo positivo.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Introduction: Atrial fibrillation is the most common recurrent arrhythmia in clinical practice. Its prevalence is multiplying in the current population and has different pathophysiological causes that make it a global pandemic.  Objectives:  To design a predictive model for failure of electrical therapy in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.  Methods:  A case-control study was carried out with 33 cases, and 66 controls. Predictor variables: age, ejection fraction &#8804; 40%, left atrial volume &#8805; 34 mL/m2. From logistic regression, a model was obtained in which the positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity and specificity were included.  Results:  The predictive risk factors were: age &#8805; 55 years (p= 0.013; odds ratio (OR)= 3.58; 95% confidence interval -CI-: 1.33-9.67); left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) &#8804; 40% was observed in 20 patients (22.7%) (p= 0.004; OR= 4.45; 95% CI: 1.54-12.8); elevated left atrial pressure, elevated left atrial volume (p= 0.004; OR= 3.11; 95% CI: 1.24-8.77), according to the logistic regression model. Internal validation was carried out by data division; It was confirmed that the model predicts very well those who will be successful in the therapeutic result.  Conclusions: The predictive model developed is composed of the predictors age &gt; 55 years, LVEF; left atrial volume; It presents a good fit and discriminating power, especially positive predictive value.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[fibrilación auricular]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelo predictivo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[terapéutica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[atrial fibrillation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[predictive model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[therapeutics]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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