<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0375-0760</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Cubana de Medicina Tropical]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev Cubana Med Trop]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0375-0760</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro Nacional de Información de Ciencias Médicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0375-07602022000300009</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Predicción fisicomatemática de la dinámica semestral de la malaria en Antioquia, Colombia]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Physico-mathematical prediction of the biannual dynamics of malaria in Antioquia, Colombia]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rodríguez Velásquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Javier Oswaldo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Correa Herrera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Sandra Catalina]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Salazar Flórez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Jorge Emilio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valdés Cadena]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Cesar Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Prieto Bohórquez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Signed Esperanza]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Grupo Insight, Insight Research Group SAS  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Bogotá]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Grupo GEINCRO, Fundación Universitaria San Martín  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Sabaneta]]></addr-line>
<country>Colombia</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>74</volume>
<numero>3</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0375-07602022000300009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0375-07602022000300009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0375-07602022000300009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Introducción:  La malaria es una enfermedad endémica en Colombia, cuyas características biológicas, fisiopatológicas y el impacto socioeconómico que genera la han posicionado como una enfermedad de interés en salud pública.  Objetivo:  Predecir el número de casos notificados de malaria para el segundo semestre del año 2020 en el departamento de Antioquia, a través de la aplicación de la teoría de la probabilidad y la caminata al azar.  Métodos:  Se realizó un estudio observacional longitudinal retrospectivo. Se analizó la dinámica geométrica del comportamiento semestral de la epidemia de malaria en el departamento de Antioquia durante los años 2008-2020 con los datos del Sistema Nacional de Vigilancia en Salud Pública, como una caminata al azar probabilística. En relación con los aumentos y disminuciones consecutivas semestrales, se determinó el número de infectados más probable para el segundo semestre del año 2020.  Resultados:  El valor de la predicción fue de 3433. Al ser comparado con los valores reportados por el Sistema Nacional de Vigilancia en Salud Pública, se obtuvo un porcentaje de acierto del 95,4 %.  Conclusiones:  Al predecir con alta precisión el número de infectados para el segundo semestre del año 2020 en el departamento de Antioquia, se evidencia la potencialidad de la metodología para implementarse como una herramienta de vigilancia en salud pública y como un medio que sirva para apoyar la toma de decisiones en materia de políticas públicas.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Introduction: Malaria is an endemic disease in Colombia. Due to its biological and pathophysiological characteristics and socioeconomic impact, it is positioned as a disease of public health interest.  Objective: To predict the number of reported cases of malaria for the second semester of 2020 in Antioquia department using the theory of probability and probabilistic random walk.  Methods: A retrospective, longitudinal, observational study was conducted. The geometric dynamics of the biannual development of malaria epidemic in Antioquia department from 2008 to 2020 was analyzed using the data from the National Surveillance System in Public Health as a probabilistic random walk. Regarding the consecutive biannual reductions and increments, the most probable number of infected individuals was determined for the second semester of 2020.  Results: The predictive value was 3433. When it was compared to the values reported by the National Surveillance System in Public Health, a 95.4% accuracy rate was obtained.  Conclusions: By predicting with high accuracy the number of infected individuals for the second semester of 2020 in Antioquia department, it is evident the methodology potential as a public health surveillance tool and as a means to support public policy decision making.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[probabilidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[malaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Antioquia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[probability]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[malaria]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Antioquia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[prediction]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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