<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0864-3466</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Cubana de Salud Pública]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev Cubana Salud Pública]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0864-3466</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Editorial Ciencias Médicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0864-34662021000200006</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelo estadístico para estimar el impacto histórico de la influenza sobre la mortalidad en Cuba]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Statistical model to estimate the historical impact of influenza on mortality in Cuba]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Oropesa Fernández]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Suset]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Seuc]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Armando]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[González Ochoa]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Edilberto]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alonso Alomá]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ismell]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Díaz González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Manolo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Valdés Ramírez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Odalys]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Toledo Vila]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Herio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Savón Valdés]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Clara]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Muné Jiménez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Mayra]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arencibia García]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Amely]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez Motas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Isabel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Martínez Alfonso]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Javier]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gonzalez Baéz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Guelsys]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Roque Arrieta]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Rosmery]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto de Medicina Tropical Pedro Kourí  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ La Habana]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Nacional de Higiene, Epidemiología y Microbiología Centro de Epidemiología y Salud Ambiental Departamento de Higiene y Epidemiología]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ La Habana]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Dirección de Registros Médicos y Estadísticas de Salud  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ La Habana]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto Superior de Ciencias Médicas de La Habana  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af5">
<institution><![CDATA[,Escuela Latinoamericana de Medicina (ELAM) Departamento Docente y Publicaciones ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ La Habana]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>47</volume>
<numero>2</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0864-34662021000200006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0864-34662021000200006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0864-34662021000200006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Introducción:  La influenza tiene elevado impacto en la mortalidad humana y en Cuba la categoría influenza y neumonía ocupa el cuarto lugar entre sus causales generales. En los países templados, con marcada estacionalidad, esto se capta con modelos estadísticos, tarea que se dificulta en el trópico y pendiente en Cuba por la ausencia de igual definición estacional.  Objetivo:  Estimar el impacto histórico de la influenza tipo A y B y los subtipos A(H3N2) y A(H1N1) sobre la mortalidad mediante el ajuste de un modelo de regresión a las condiciones estacionales específicas de Cuba.  Métodos: Se ejecutó un estudio longitudinal y retrospectivo. En un primer paso se ajustaron dos modelos de Poisson con la mortalidad influenza y neumonía total y las personas &#8805; 65 años de edad como variables respuestas en los cinco meses de mayor positividad en influenza, desde la temporada 1987-1988 hasta la 2004-2005 y los positivos en tipo A y en tipo B como explicatorias. En otro par de modelos se estimó el impacto del A(H3N2) y el A(H1N1), considerando como respuesta los fallecidos atribuidos previamente al tipo A.  Resultados:  Se atribuyeron a la influenza 7803 fallecidos entre todas las edades y 6152 entre las personas &#8805; 65 años de edad, con un 56,3 % asociados al A(H3N2), el 17,6 % al A(H1N1) y el 26,1 % al tipo B.  Conclusiones.  Se logró estimar el impacto de la influenza sobre la mortalidad mediante el ajuste para Cuba de un modelo estadístico que permitió demostrar la asociación de la circulación de estos virus con la mortalidad en el país, lo que ratifica la necesidad de reforzar la vigilancia, el control y la vacunación contra esta infección viral. Se demuestra la posibilidad de ajustar estos modelos de regresión a otros virus respiratorios y a la actual pandemia por la COVID-19, en las condiciones estacionales de Cuba.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Introduction:  Influenza has a high impact on human mortality and in Cuba influenza and pneumonia rank fourth among its general causes. In temperate climate countries, with marked seasonality, this is captured by statistical models, a task that is difficult in the tropics and pending in Cuba due to the absence of the same seasonal definition.  Objective:  Estimate the historical impact of influenza type A and B and subtypes A(H3N2) and A(H1N1) on mortality, by adjusting a regression model to the specific seasonal conditions of Cuba.  Methods:  A longitudinal and retrospective study was performed. In a first step, two Poisson models were adjusted with influenza and total pneumonia mortality and people &#8805; 65 years old as response variables in the five months with the highest positivity to influenza in the period 1987-1988 to 2004-2005, and the positive ones to type A and type B as explanatory variables. In another pair of models was estimated the impact of A(H3N2) and A(H1N1), considering as a response the deaths previously attributed to type A.  Results:  7 803 deaths among all ages and 6 152 among 65-year-olds were attributed to influenza, with 56.3% associated to A(H3N2), 17.6% to A(H1N1) and 26.1% to type B.  Conclusions: It was possible to estimate the impact of influenza on mortality by adjusting for Cuba a statistical model that demonstrated the association of the circulation of these viruses with the mortality in the country, which confirms the need to strengthen surveillance, control and vaccination against this viral infection. The possibility of adjusting in the seasonal conditions of Cuba these regression models to other respiratory viruses and the current pandemic by COVID-19 is demonstrated.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[influenza]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mortalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[modelos de regresión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[neumonía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Cuba]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Influenza]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[mortality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[regression models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[pneumonia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Cuba]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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