<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1028-4818</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Multimed]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Multimed]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1028-4818</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro Provincial de Información de Ciencias Médicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1028-48182021000600006</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelación matemática de los casos autóctonos de Covid-19. Municipio Bayamo. Febrero- Agosto 2021]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Mathematical modeling of the autochthonous cases of Covid-19. Bayamo Municipality. February- August 2021]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Modelagem matemática dos casos autóctones de Covid-19. Município de Bayamo. Fevereiro a agosto de 2021]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Roberto Fonseca Pantoja]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ricardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fonseca González]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Zulin]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Oriente Facultad de Matemática y Computación ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ Santiago de Cuba]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro Provincial de Higiene, Epidemiología y Microbiología  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bayamo Granma]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>25</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1028-48182021000600006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1028-48182021000600006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1028-48182021000600006&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  El municipio Bayamo acumuló, 8162 casos positivos autóctonos de febrero a agosto en el año 2021, es el centro de la epidemia en la provincia de COVID-19 provocada por el SARS -CoV-2 determinado por el test de Proteína C Reactiva, representa el53,2 % del total de los casos en ese periodo en Granma, muy diferente a lo ocurrido en el año 2020 en el cual la provincia acumuló solamente 185personas contagiadas en nueve meses, con una tasa de 22.6 la más baja de Cuba. La provincia Granma acumuló 119 fallecidos en agosto/2021 que representa el 62,9 % de todos los muertos desde que comenzó la pandemia hasta agosto, lo que indica la alta incidencia de la epidemia que hay en estos momentos. Para la modelación matemática y el análisis de los casos positivos autóctonos de todos los ocurridos durante los meses de febrero a agosto en el año 2021 en Bayamo se obtuvieron polinomios de grado tres y cuatro que modelan el comportamiento de la epidemia durante los siete meses analizados, así como el de los fallecidos durante el mes de agosto en Granma con un carácter predictivo mayor al 98 % en todos los modelos.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  The Bayamo municipality accumulated 8162 autochthonous positive cases from February to August in 2021, it is the center of the epidemic in the province of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 determined by the C-Reactive Protein test, represents the 53.2% of the total cases in that period in Granma, very different from what happened in 2020 in which the province accumulated only 185 infected people in nine months, with a rate of 22.6, the lowest in Cuba. Granma province accumulated 119 deaths in August / 2021, which represents 62.9% of all deaths since the pandemic began until August, which indicates the high incidence of the epidemic that exists at the moment. For the mathematical modeling and analysis of the autochthonous positive cases of all those that occurred during the months of February to August in 2021 in Bayamo, polynomials of degree three and four were obtained that model the behavior of the epidemic during the seven months analyzed. as well as that of the deceased during the month of August in Granma with a predictive character greater than 98% in all models.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[RESUMO  O município de Bayamo acumulou 8.162 casos autóctones positivos de fevereiro a agosto de 2021, é o centro da epidemia na província de COVID-19 causada pelo SARS-CoV-2 determinado pelo teste da Proteína C Reativa, representa 53,2% de o total de casos nesse período no Granma, muito diferente do que aconteceu em 2020 em que a província acumulou apenas 185 pessoas infectadas em nove meses, com uma taxa de 22,6, a mais baixa de Cuba. A província do Granma acumulou 119 mortes em agosto / 2021, o que representa 62,9% de todas as mortes desde o início da pandemia até agosto, o que indica a alta incidência da epidemia que existe no momento. Para a modelagem matemática e análise dos casos positivos autóctones de todos os ocorridos durante os meses de fevereiro a agosto de 2021 em Bayamo, foram obtidos polinômios de grau três e quatro que modelam o comportamento da epidemia durante os sete meses analisados. bem como o dos falecidos durante o mês de agosto no Granma com caráter preditivo superior a 98% em todos os modelos.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Epidemia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelo estadístico-matemático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Ecuación de regresión]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Media móvil]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pronóstico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pendiente epidemiológica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Epidemic]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Statistical-mathematical model]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Regression equation]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Moving average]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Forecast]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Epidemiological pending]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Epidemia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Modelo estatístico-matemático]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Equação de regressão]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Média móvel]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Previsão]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Epidemiológica pendente]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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