<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1028-4818</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Multimed]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Multimed]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1028-4818</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro Provincial de Información de Ciencias Médicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1028-48182023000100023</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Factores pronósticos de muerte por neumonía adquirida en la comunidad en los pacientes con enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Prognostic factors for death from community acquired pneumonia in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[Factores pronósticos de muerte por neumonía adquirida na comunidade nos pacientes com enfermedad pulmonar obstrutiva crónica]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Arévalo Ramos]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Elio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Fonseca Aguilera]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ariel Arnoldo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Echavarría Antúnez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Emilsander Marino]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Blanco Cabrales]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Dailys]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Gamboa Suárez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Adrián]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Granma Hospital General Provincial Carlos Manuel de Céspedes ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Bayamo Granma]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2023</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>27</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1028-48182023000100023&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1028-48182023000100023&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1028-48182023000100023&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Introducción: la prevención y tratamiento inmediato de las enfermedades infecciosas y en particular la neumonía adquirida en la comunidad (NAC), son indispensable para mejorar el pronóstico, en pacientes con enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (EPOC).  Objetivo:  evaluar la capacidad de un modelo basado en factores pronóstico para predecir el riego de morir por neumonía adquirida en la comunidad en los pacientes con enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica.  Métodos:  se realizó un estudio analítico de cohorte en pacientes con diagnóstico de enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica y neumonía adquirida en la comunidad ingresados en el hospital Carlos Manuel de Céspedes, en el periodo comprendido desde el1rode enero de 2019 al 31 de diciembre de 2020.  Resultados:  con el modelo de regresión logística se encontró que el choque fue el factor más importante al elevar a más de 18 veces el mencionado riesgo (OR= 18,84; IC= 3,26 a 24,61; p= 0,000), seguido de la neumonía multilobar (OR= 14,55; IC= 8,80 a 21,43; p = 0,019) y de la disfunción orgánica reversible (OR= 8,01; IC= 1,25 a 51,17; p = 0,009). La calibración y la discriminación del modelo quedó demostrado por los valores de la prueba de Hosmer-Lemeshow (p= 0,419) y el área bajo la curva características operativas receptor (0,952; p= 0,000) respectivamente.  Conclusiones:  con los valores obtenidos por el modelo de regresión logística se podrá estimar el riesgo de morir, al mostrar adecuada calibración y capacidad discriminativa.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Introduction:  the prevention and immediate treatment of infectious diseases and in particular community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), are essential to improve the prognosis in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).  Objective:  to evaluate the ability of a model based on prognostic factors to predict the risk of dying from community-acquired pneumonia in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.  Methods:  an analytical cohort study was conducted in patients diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and community-acquired pneumonia admitted to the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes hospital, in the period from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2020.  Results:  with the logistic regression model it was found that shock was the most important factor, raising the aforementioned risk to more than 18 times (OR= 18.84; CI= 3.26 to 24.61; p= 0.000), followed by multilobar pneumonia (OR= 14.55; CI= 8.80 to 21.43; p = 0.019) and reversible organ dysfunction (OR = 8.01; CI= 1.25 to 51.17; p = 0.009). The calibration and discrimination of the model was demonstrated by the values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.419) and the area under the curve receiver operating characteristics (0.952; p = 0.000) respectively.  Conclusions:  with the values obtained by the logistic regression model, it will be possible to estimate the risk of dying, showing adequate calibration and discriminative capacity.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[RESUMO  Introdução:  a prevenção e o tratamento imediato das doenças infecciosas e, em particular, da pneumonia adquirida na comunidade (PAC), são essenciais para melhorar o prognóstico em pacientes com doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica (DPOC).  Objetivo: avaliar a capacidade de um modelo baseado em fatores prognósticos em predizer o risco de morte por pneumonia adquirida na comunidade em pacientes com doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica.  Métodos: foi realizado um estudo de coorte analítico em pacientes com diagnóstico de doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica e pneumonia adquirida na comunidade internados no hospital Carlos Manuel de Céspedes, no período de 1º de janeiro de 2019 a 31 de dezembro de 2020.  Resultados: com o modelo de regressão logística verificou-se que o choque foi o fator mais importante, elevando o risco supracitado para mais de 18 vezes (OR= 18,84; IC= 3,26 a 24,61; p= 0,000), seguida de pneumonia multilobar (OR= 14,55; IC= 8,80 a 21,43; p = 0,019) e disfunção orgânica reversível (OR = 8,01; IC= 1,25 a 51,17; p = 0,009). A calibração e discriminação do modelo foram demonstradas pelos valores do teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow (p = 0,419) e pelas características operacionais do receptor da área sob a curva (0,952; p = 0,000), respectivamente.  Conclusões: com os valores obtidos pelo modelo de regressão logística, será possível estimar o risco de morrer, apresentando adequada calibração e capacidade discriminativa.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Pronóstico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Neumonía]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Prognosis]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Pneumonia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Prognóstico]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Pneumonia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Doença pulmonar obstrutiva crônica]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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<issue>5</issue>
<page-range>1896-911</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B15">
<label>15</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Bahamonde Aravena]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[G]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Asociación del eje IL-7/IL-7R con la gravedad en adultos con neumonía adquirida en la comunidad.]]></source>
<year>2021</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Santiago de Chile ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad de Chile]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
