<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>1561-3003</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista Cubana de Higiene y Epidemiología]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev Cubana Hig Epidemiol]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>1561-3003</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Centro Nacional de Información de Ciencias MédicasEditorial Ciencias Médicas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S1561-30032021000100009</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Detección prospectiva espacio-temporal de conglomerados de COVID-19 en Cuba]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Prospective spatiotemporal detection of COVID-19 clusters in Cuba]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Montano Valle]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Damarys de las Nieves]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Abreu Jorge]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Yandy]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Germán Almeida]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Ángel Miguel]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Iñiguez Rojas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luisa Basilia]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Percedo Abreu]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[María Irían]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Borroto Gutiérrez]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Susana Marta]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Alfonso Zamora]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pastor]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Centro Nacional de Sanidad Agropecuaria (CENSA) Dirección de Salud Animal Grupo de Epidemiología]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Mayabeque San José de las Lajas]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Instituto de Medicina Tropical &#8220;Pedro Kouri&#8221;  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ La Habana]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad de la Habana Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO) ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ La Habana]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af4">
<institution><![CDATA[,Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS) en La Habana  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>Cuba</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>58</volume>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S1561-30032021000100009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S1561-30032021000100009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S1561-30032021000100009&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN  Introducción: Durante enfermedades infecciosas emergentes en curso como la COVID-19, la vigilancia espacio-temporal es fundamental para identificar áreas prioritarias para intervenciones específicas, diferenciar intensidad diagnóstica y asignación de recursos.  Objetivo: Modelar la evolución del riesgo relativo de presentación de casos de COVID-19 e identificar conglomerados en municipios donde la enfermedad se mantuvo en el periodo posterior al descenso de la curva epidémica en Cuba.  Métodos: El periodo mencionado comprendió entre el 26/05/2020 hasta el 4/09/2020. Se realizaron corridas cíclicas del modelo prospectivo espacio-temporal de Poisson, con incrementos progresivos de 14 días, mediante la aplicación SaTScan&#8482; 9.6.  Resultados: Se identificaron 15 conglomerados significativos (p &#8804; 0,0001) cuya extensión involucró desde uno hasta trece municipios, con distribución en seis provincias (Pinar del Río, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, Villa Clara y Ciego de Ávila). En los conglomerados todos los municipios mostraron riesgo relativo alto, entre ellos, La Palma en la provincia de Pinar del Río y Ciego de Ávila en la provincia del mismo nombre, con los valores más altos, 119,95 y 121,04, respectivamente.  Conclusión: El modelo empleado pudo identificar los conglomerados en territorios con significativa probabilidad de ocurrencia de COVID-19, así como periodos de evolución del riesgo relativo. Además, reconoce los municipios que merecen prioridad para intensificar en ellos intervenciones de contención y control sanitario y evitar la reemergencia de la enfermedad con mayor dispersión espacial.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT  Introduction: During the occurrence of ongoing emerging infectious diseases such as COVID-19, spatiotemporal surveillance is crucial to identify priority areas for specific interventions, differentiate diagnostic intensity and assign resources.  Objective:  To model the evolution of the relative risk of presentation of COVID-19 cases and to identify clusters in municipalities where the disease remains at the stage following the descent of the epidemic curve in Cuba.  Methods: The period mentioned was from 26/05/2020 to 4/09/2020. Cyclic runs of Poisson's prospective spatiotemporal model were performed, with progressive 14-day increases, using the software SaTScan&#8482; 9.6.  Results: A total 15 significant clusters were identified (p &#8804; 0.0001) extending over one to thirteen municipalities and distributed in six provinces (Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, Villa Clara and Ciego de Ávila). In the clusters, all municipalities showed a high relative risk among them, La Palma in Pinar del Rio province and Ciego de Avila in the province of the same name, with the highest values, 119.95 and 121.04, respectively.  Conclusion: The model was able to identify territories with a significant likelihood of COVID-19 occurrence, as well as periods in the evolution of relative risk. It also showed that surveillance and early warning strategies may facilitate prioritization of health control and containment interventions aimed at preventing the reemergence of the disease with greater spatial coverage.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[agrupamiento espacio-temporal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[riesgo relativo]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[vigilancia]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[spatiotemporal grouping]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[relative risk]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[surveillance]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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